E-posta : nuranb@uludag.edu.tr Telefon: 0 224 2941126 Adres: Uludağ Üniversitesi, İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi, Ekonometri Bölümü,16059, Görükle/Bursa.
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Website:
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Objective of the Course:
The aim of the course is to gain knowledge about different models and decision analysis techniques for decision-making under certainty and uncertainty using concepts such as statistical decision theory, utility theory, decision trees, Bayes theorem.
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Contribution of the Course to Professional Development
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Learning Outcomes:
1
To be able to know the basic concepts of statistical decision theory.;
2
To be able to define the problem of decision-making.;
3
To be able to solve cost structure decision problems;
4
To be able to know the rules and concepts of game theory. ;
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To be able to apply analysis of decision making under uncertainty and risk.;
6
To be able to apply the decision tree analysis.;
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To be able to use knowledge of sampling when statistical making-decisions. ;
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To be able to use Bayes theorem when statistical making-decisions.;
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To be able to apply the markov analysis.;
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To be able to know multi-criteria decision making methods.;
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Course Content:
Week
Theoretical
Practical
1
The definition and characteristics of decision making
2
Elements and stages of decision-making
3
Present the decision-making problem
4
Types of Decision-making
5
Cost-structured decision problems
6
Decision making under uncertainty
7
Decision making under risk
8
Decision-tree analysis
9
Bayes theorem and decision-making with knowledge of sampling
10
Discrete distributions in decision-making with Bayesian approach
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Continious distributions in decision-making with Bayesian approach
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Game theory
13
Markov analysis
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Multi-criteria decision-making methods
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Textbooks, References and/or Other Materials:
1.Necmi Gürsakal, Bayesgil İstatistik, Uludağ Üniversitesi Yayınları, 1992. 2.Zerrin Aladağ, Karar Teorisi, Umuttepe Yayınları, 2011. 3.James Berger, Statistical Decision Theory and Bayesian Analysis, Springer-Verlag, 1980. 4.Mustafa Aytaç, Necmi Gürsakal (editörler), Karar Verme, Dora Yayınları, 2015.
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Assesment
TERM LEARNING ACTIVITIES
NUMBER
PERCENT
Midterm Exam
1
40
Quiz
0
0
Homeworks, Performances
0
0
Final Exam
1
60
Total
2
100
Contribution of Term (Year) Learning Activities to Success Grade
40
Contribution of Final Exam to Success Grade
60
Total
100
Measurement and Evaluation Techniques Used in the Course
Information
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ECTS / WORK LOAD TABLE
Activites
NUMBER
TIME [Hour]
Total WorkLoad [Hour]
Theoretical
14
3
42
Practicals/Labs
0
0
0
Self Study and Preparation
14
4
56
Homeworks, Performances
0
0
0
Projects
0
0
0
Field Studies
0
0
0
Midtermexams
1
20
20
Others
2
20
40
Final Exams
1
25
25
Total WorkLoad
183
Total workload/ 30 hr
6,1
ECTS Credit of the Course
6
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CONTRIBUTION OF LEARNING OUTCOMES TO PROGRAMME QUALIFICATIONS
